Recently, the General Administration of Customs of China released import and export data for the first half of the year and June. In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high for the same period.
But it should also be noted that compared to the data from the first five months, the import and export growth rate in the first half of the year decreased by 2.6 percentage points, while the export growth rate decreased by 4.4 percentage points; Compared with the first four months, the growth rate of imports and exports in the first half of the year contracted by 3.7 and 6.9 percentage points, respectively.
01The import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan in the first half of 2001
According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 20.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, of which exports were 11.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; Imports reached 8.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.
Customs statistics show that in the first half of the year, the total import and export value of goods trade increased by over 400 billion yuan year-on-year, with a scale exceeding 20 trillion yuan in the same period of history. In the first and second quarters, they reached 9.76 trillion yuan and 10.34 trillion yuan respectively, achieving positive growth year-on-year. From a month on month basis, import and export in the second quarter increased by 6% compared to the first quarter, and both May and June saw a month on month increase of 1.2%.
China's foreign trade structure continues to optimize, with general trade imports and exports reaching 13.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 8.9%, accounting for 52.7% of the total import and export value. The new three types of products, including electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells, saw a total export growth of 61.6%, driving an overall export growth of 1.8 percentage points.
02The total value of imports and exports in June 2002 decreased three times year-on-year
Source: Invasion and deletion by the General Administration of Customs
According to customs statistics, in June this year, China's imports and exports amounted to 3488.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. This is the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth decline since April this year. Among them, exports amounted to 1989.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; The import was 1498.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%; The trade surplus is 49.125 billion yuan.
Data shows that in US dollars, China's export value decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in June, an increase of 4.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, while imports decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. The growth rate of exports and imports was lower than expected.
03 Export demand has not improved yet
After May, the export growth rate in June experienced another negative growth, which analysts said was partly due to weak external demand and no improvement, and partly due to the high base of the same period last year suppressing the current export growth rate. In June 2022, the export amount increased by 17.0% year-on-year.
According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in June was 47.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been below the 50% boom and bust line for nine consecutive months. Among them, the PMI of Manufacturing in the United States declined by 0.9 percentage points to 46%, while that of Europe declined by 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%.
The National Economic Research Center of Peking University pointed out in a research report that although the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has increased the profits of export enterprises' unsettled orders and to some extent increased the willingness of foreign customers to place orders, overall, export demand has not improved.
Zhang Jingjing, Chief Macro Analyst of China Merchants Securities, further pointed out that based on historical data, China's manufacturing PMI new export orders often lead exports by about 2-3 months. The value of new export orders in April and May has decreased, so the export growth pressure faced in June and July is still not small. In addition, with a high base in the same period last year, exports will maintain negative growth in the near future.
In June, among the main export commodities, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 14.5% year-on-year, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and their products decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, the export value of high-tech products decreased by 16.8% year-on-year, rare earth and steel decreased by more than 30% year-on-year, and the export value of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 110% year-on-year.
04 Price factors causing drag on imports
Source: Cailian Society's Invasion and Deletion
From the perspective of imports, the year-on-year growth rate has been negative for four consecutive months. Analysts say this is mainly due to the slowdown in global economic growth, which has led to a decline in commodity prices and a drag on imports due to price factors.
Customs data shows that in June, China's crude oil imports increased by 45.3% year-on-year, but the import amount decreased by 1.4% year-on-year; The import volume of copper ore and its concentrate increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the import amount decreased by 7.6% year-on-year; The import volume of iron ore sand and its concentrate increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the import amount decreased by 15.1% year-on-year.
In the first half of this year, the import amount decreased by 6.7% year-on-year in US dollars. In the top three import markets, imports from ASEAN decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, imports from the EU decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and imports from Latin America increased by 0.9% year-on-year.
The General Administration of Customs stated that inflation in major developed economies is still at a high level, geopolitical conflicts continue, and there is insufficient momentum for short-term external demand recovery. China's stable growth in foreign trade still faces significant pressure. But at the same time, it should also be noted that the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience, great potential, and long-term improvement have not changed. With the continuous efforts of a series of policy measures, we have confidence, foundation, and conditions to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in imports and exports.
Source: Souhang Network
