Vincent Clerc, CEO of Danish shipping giant Maersk, pointed out in an interview that global trade is showing signs of recovery, but unlike this year's inventory adjustment, the rebound next year is mainly driven by rising consumer demand in Europe and America.
Ko Wensheng, who has taken over Maersk since the beginning of 2024, pointed out in an interview with US financial media CNBC last week that unless there are any negative surprises, we hope that demand can slowly recover after entering 2024. This is different from the prosperity we have known in the past few years, but it can be confirmed that demand mainly comes from the consumer side and is not so closely related to inventory adjustments.
Ke Wensheng stated that European and American consumers are the main drivers of this wave of trade demand rebound, and the European and American markets continue to show "amazing rebound momentum". Given the warehouse being filled with unsold goods, low consumer confidence, and supply chain bottlenecks, Maersk warned of weak shipping demand last year.
Ke Wensheng pointed out that even though the economic situation is difficult and severe, emerging markets still show resilience, especially in India, Latin America, and Africa. North America and other major economies faltered due to macroeconomic factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Sino US trade war, but North America is expected to show strong performance next year. Ke Wensheng said that when the situation begins to normalize and the problem is resolved, we will see a rebound in demand. Emerging markets and North America are areas we believe have greater potential for recovery.
But the President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, is not so optimistic. In an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi on the 10th of this month, she said that the path to boosting global trade and economic growth may not be smooth, and as seen so far, it is even very unsettling.
She said: Our world is going against globalization, with global trade expanding at a slower pace than global economic growth, with a 2% increase in global trade and a 3% economic growth rate. George Ava pointed out that if we want trade to once again serve as an engine of economic growth, we need to build bridges and create opportunities.
Source: Souhang Network
